Monday, August 5, 2013

Can the Current Crisis Lead to the Similar 2000's Post-election Crisis in Former Yugoslvia?

Former Yugoslavia President Sloboban Milosevic
Strong Man Hun Sen
By ខែ្មរវឌ្ឍនកម្ម

    As our post election crisis has aggravated toward the stand off between the oppositions and strong man Hun Sen, this situation can turn into the 2000's post-election crisis in former Yugoslavia, but it may turn into unpredictable outcome. Former President Sloboban Milosevic had ruled the former Yugoslavia from 1987 to 2000 before he was forced to step down by mass protests on accusation of election fraud. Mr. Milosevic had claimed himself as a winner with slim margin and demanded for a runoff election, but the opposition leader, Mr. Kostunica totally rejected Milosevic's demand and claimed he is the real winner. As the time has dragged on, hundreds thousands of protesters pouring into the Belgrade Square demanding President Milosevic to step down immediately. At the turning point, the protesters stormed the Parliament Building, state-run TV station, and  other command centers that caused Milosevic's patronage system to break down along with most security forces switched side to the oppositions. As Milosevic was pushed down to the corner, there was no guarantee exit for him but to step down without conditions.
      Is this the pre-image of the current crisis in Cambodia? No body knows for sure, but in the event that the current political deadlock has dragged on--the disagreement over the UN's role in the inquiry committee, the oppositions will have no choice but to call for the nationwide demonstrations in order to defense the rights and the will of the people as they had promised. And if Hun Sen and his party, the CPP have done nothing wrong as they claimed, they should not fear to let the UN's full participation in this inquiry. A small concession by Hun Sen can help to avert the country from this deep crisis and to reduce his political risk in the near unforeseen future. The real images of the post-election crisis in former Yugoslavia can be replayed in Cambodia if Hun Sen has continued to reject the will of the people as they clearly have spoken out that they cannot bear another five-years rule of his dictatorship.

    To understand more about the roots of these two similar crisis, we need to look at what Milosevic and Hun Sen have in common to bring glories and humiliates to their country:
President Milosevic's past glories and humiliation
-A former communist leader of former Yugoslavia
-A lawyer graduaded from Belgrade  University
-President of Serbia and then Yugoslavia from 1987-2000
-A stunned Serbian nationalist politician
-Had built the almighty Yugoslav Army
-Stand firm against the Soviet's sphere of influence in Eastern Europe ( only Romania and Yugoslavia were not the satellite states of the Soviet Union during the Cold War 1948-1990)
-Call for greater Serbia over Balkan Peninsula
-Support all Serbian Nationalist Movements in the new break-away independent states
-Send troops to stop Kosavo from declaring independence before intervened by NATO and the US
-Rule the country in patronage system
-Responsible for economic sanction on his country by the West
-Lose popular support at home then defeated in election
-Manipulate result and fraud in the 2000's election
-Refuse to give up power then forced to step down by mass protests
-Arrested and charged by Serbian Authority for corruption, abuse of power, and election fraud in 2001and later extradited to Huge for war crime
-Died in 2006 in his jail cell from natural cause without getting his verdict

    As we have seen the mixed bag of Milosevic's past achievements and failures over his political career, the Serbs have had pride of his nationalism fervor while for Hun Sen, his mixed bag of past achievements are very controversial:
Strong Man Hun Sen's past achievements and humiliation
-Former Khmer Rouge Commander
-No formal educational degrees, got many Ph.D  degrees later without study
-He is neither a communist nor a capitalist but an opportunist
-He is neither a liberal nor a conservative but a dictator
-He is neither a monarchist nor a nationalist but a Hanoi's protege
-Anointed as Prime Minister by the Vietnamese in 1985 and has ruled the country since then
-Supervise and execute the K-5 plan that cost thousands of Khmer lives during Vietnam's occupation
-Sign Paris Peace Accord in 1991
-Survive the first election lost 1993 supervised by the UN
-Behind the grenade attack on the opposition rally, which killed and injured many people 1997
-Launch a bloody coup against his co-prime minister Prince Ranarith 1997
-Use his win-win policy to end the war completely in 1998 with the Khmer Rouge
-Rule the country with his patronage system (every one in his circle talk the same language)
Develop the country's economy  (unequal growth)
-Rule the country with iron fist--harass and threaten his opponents
-Claim wining election with systematic fraud that led to this current post-election crisis
      Although Hun Sen has shared some common styles of his rule with Milosevic, but he has no sense of nationalism at all compared to Milosevic who had brought glory of nationalism for Serbian people. In contrast, Hun Sen has brought sufferings and humiliation to his country unbearably over the past 30 years. Now the time for Hun sen to relinquish his power is overdue, but there is no clue he is willing to do so in peaceful way. The oppositions should search for all possible means that can help to break this political deadlock before bringing the mass protests to the streets. This is not the first and the last time when Hun Sen has made his opponents as his political hostage. Prior to the Paris Peace Accord, Hun Sen had used all his political leverages to make his rivals to yield painful concessions that finally helped to clear the way for his dictatorial rule. Hun sen is not a nationalist as Milosevic but a Hanoi's protege who has been trained to do their job. He has no fear to lose any thing but his power. Consequently, the oppositions need to devise a responsible and sophisticated plan based on the constitution to deal with this unpredictable beast otherwise the Innocent people will pay the heavy price vainly again as we have witnessed  in the 1997 coup and the 1998 election result's protests.

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