Sunday, July 14, 2013

Which Party Will Win This Election?

The CNRP rally in Phnom Penh
      By ខែ្មរវឌ្ឍនកម្ម

           There are 8 political parties to compete for this election. But only two political parties are poise to win this election: the CPP and the CNRP, Funcenpec will tail both parties or none. We assume the NEC is neutral.
            Based on the communal election result on 2012, there are about 6 million voters casted their ballots that time. The CPP got 3.6 million votes, the Sam Rainsey and Human Rights parties got about 2 million votes, translating to commune chief seat, they got only 40 commune chief seats while the CPP overwhelmingly got 1,592 commune chief seats and the other small parties got no commune chief seats. Now there are about 9 million register voters, about 3 million voters did not vote in the past commune election. We assume that the CPP at least maintains most of its 3.6 million votes. Look at the other 3 million voters. who are they going to vote for?  These 3 million voters are independent and undecided voters, and they did not go to votes in the past for many reasons. So if any party can inform and persuade them about its meaningful policy and get them to vote at this time, that party will get this swing votes and easy to win. Based on constitutional amendment formula 50% plus one, now the political party needs only 62 seats plus one seat to form the government based on the 123 total seats. So each party looks at this number in order to win. The CPP doesn't need to gain any more seats but have to maintain the numbers it currently holds (90 seats) or to minimize its lost. Any lost more than 30 seats will put the CPP in a dangerous zone. For the CNRP, currently holds 29 seats; it needs to gain more than double of its currently holding seats or 34 more seats in order to win. These numbers can be a tough fight. the strategy is to take over 4 seats from Funcenpec and 30 seats from the CPP or take as much as it can from the CPP.
         If the CNRP cannot go to 62 +1 zone, it may stay  between 45 and 50 seats. At this point, the CNRP has enough votes in the National Assembly to block all arbitrary laws created by the CPP. So look at the important zone that each party needs to pass. From 63 seats up is the jackpot for the winner and 45 seats up is the reward point for the losers. This short analysis, is based on the free and fair election environment.

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