Sunday, October 6, 2013

The Opposition's Exclusion from the Power Mechanism in the Legislature will Creates a Resolute Political Battle

Hun Sen, an unpredictable leader

An insincere handshake

By ខែ្មរវឌ្ឍនកម្ម

After the negotiation between the CPP and the CNRP has faltered over the past two months, the CPP which has created the new government on its own will, has planned to finish its final work of creating the power mechanism in the parliament unilaterally again without showing any interest to solve the problem with the opposition except leaving a fractional power for the opposition to get it or to lose it. Such a brave move by Hun Sen and his CPP is very unacceptable to any party in the dispute. Hun Sen and his CPP are using their tons of leverages to force the opposition to succumb in order to end the crisis on their own will.  This offensive act cannot end this crisis quickly but to prolong it without a foreseen future. Hun Sen and his CPP intend to create more crisis but claim they don't have the crisis, and they intend to break up the national unity when they always talk about the national reconciliation. This is a hypocrisy that the CPP has preached over the past 30 years. So far, the CPP has not made any considerable concession that help to end the current crisis but to ignore and ignite it. when Hun Sen and his CPP complete their final work of creating the power structure in the parliament on their own will this week, there is nothing left for the opposition to talk with them any more but to prepare for the riskier and resolute battle with the CPP in the future. The CNRP still possesses more leverages against the CPP but not fully guaranteed of its success.The opposition have no more room to move but to fight for their survival to the end by using all their available leverages at this final stage of the crisis.

Hitherto, Hun Sen and his entourage have successfully moved to regain their power by forcing the king to approve their new created government without the opposition participation and any strong reaction from the international community yet. But their move this week to finish their procedure of creating the power mechanism in the parliament repeatedly excluding the opposition, will either decide their final victory or to create a protracted political battle for them in the future. In the real battle zone of war, both sides always follow the game rule by providing their enemies a space to surrender or to die; but for the current political battle, Hun Sen has given no more space for the CNRP when his party moves to grasp all the power in the new legislature that the opposition expect to get their fair share in order to create a check and balance of power in the new government. Without any power left for them in the legislature, the opposition have no choice but to fight to their end, which will create a prolong battle and crisis ahead. The new ten demands from the opposition may help the CPP to renew negotiation with them to search for some common grounds, and if the CPP can't accept all those demands, they may consider some of them that may help narrow a gap of differences before reaching a final acceptable solution. To exclude the opposition from the power structure in the new legislature definitely means to end all further negotiations in the future.

 Now the opposition will have a clear choice to fight for their final justice by bringing more pressure on the regime internally and internationally. the appeal for all the signatory countries to review the Paris Peace Accord and a petition to the UN are the possible means to pursue by the opposition. if the opposition can bring millions of signatures to the UN, they will bring attention to the UN Security Council that used to punish the Hun Sen's Regime twice already ( during the Vietnamese occupation in 1980s and the 1997 bloody coup ) by suspending the government's seat at the UN.  So far, the US, the EU, and Japan the largest donor countries for the current regime, have not reacted strongly to the current crisis yet, but they are watching the current development closely. Any bold move by the CPP to consolidate the power unilaterally without the opposition participation will test their will and patient; how far they can let Hun Sen go against the democratic principle that he had embraced at the Paris Peace accord over 20 years ago. If the donor countries choose to suspend their financial aids for the regime and the exports from the country, Hun Sen will face his political nightmare in the future. Although Hun Sen has China as his back up economically and politically, China alone cannot afford to fill up the gap left by the donor countries. The stake is too high for Hun Sen to ignore at this time if the donor countries have swiftly acted on the opposition request. We can't imagine the current regime will face, if more than a billion dollar of annual financial aid and tens of billions dollar of exports will be suspended along with the drop of tourist activities that are the lifelines of Cambodian economy.

The cursorily created government by the CPP without the opposition input and a plan by the CPP to exclude the opposition from the power mechanism in the parliament this week will provide enough warrants for the international community to act based on the Paris Peace Accord that has guaranteed the multi-party system of the government for Cambodia. All the signatory countries especially the donor countries must use all their available leverages to force Hun Sen-- a repeated violator of the Paris Peace Accord--to honor what he had promised in the past. Without any consequence, Hun Sen and his CPP will definitely bring the country back to the one party-system rule that grossly violates the Paris Peace accord that Hun Sen himself had solemnly signed in October 1991.

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