Sam Rainsy expects a barrage of lawsuit from Hun Sen

[Image credit to Sam Rainsy's Facebook Page]

 By Khmer Wathanakam
www.khmerwathanak.blogspot.com

Hun Sen's political and legal offensives against Sam Rainsy, his main rival, in the past few weeks have met with counter offensive from Sam Rainsy apparently his final political counter attack before the battle is over.  After an arrest warrant for him and his parliamentarian status was removed by the CPP's rubber stamp MPs, Sam Rainsy has no choices but to fight back for his own justice.  In his latest verbal attack though clearly unrelated  to personal attack, Sam Rainsy accused the ruling party committed a constitutional coup in stripping his parliamentary immunity and a removal of Kem Sokha from the vice president of the National Assembly.  One day after this accusation, Hun Sen's court has summoned Sam Raisy to answer question related to Hong Sok Hour forgery case, accusing Sam Rainsy of using fake document by allowing Hong Sok Hour posted the document on his Facebook Page.  Hun Sen had warned Sam Rainsy of such legal action when he visited France in late October just a couple hours before he ordered his mobs to attack two CNRP's PMs severely.  This lawsuit against Sam Rainsy is not the last one but  just the beginning of a barrage defame lawsuit against him.  Hun Sen is building more cases against Sam Rainsy when he accused Hun Sen of creating political instability in order to delay or avert the next election, and another case when Sam Rainsy recently accused Hun Sen regime had convicted King Father Sihanouk to death in 1979.  This is a pattern of political altercation between the two rivals from the past to present. In 2009, after Hun Sen's court convicted Sam Rainy to two years in prison for his uprooting the border post, Sam Rainsy had unveiled more maps indicating Vietnam had encroached more Cambodian lands.  In response, Hun Sen ordered his court to convict Sam Rainsy for falsifying documents that led to adding more jail term for Sam Rainsy total of 12 years.
Such a familiar pattern of lawsuit now has happened again.  And all such the controversial lawsuits will only be settled on political deal between the two rival parties when the political tension has cooled down in some days.  

Should Sam Rainsy return to live in notorious prison Prey Sar?

[Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha meet supporters in Korea, image Sam Rainsy's Facebook]

By Khmer Wathanakam
www.khmerwathanak.blogspot.com

Following of an exchange of political rhetoric between Hun Sen and Sam Rainsy, arrest warrant had been issued for Sam Rainsy; this is probably a final political offensive that Hun Sen unleashed in order to eliminate his potential rival from political stage, and Sam Rainsy not only faced a dilemma but perhaps an end of his political career after he had gone through with it nearly three decades since early 1980s with very little success. Actually, Sam Rainsy is not a real politician but a technocrat.  He earned no Political Science Degree but Economics, Business, and Finance.  And he seemed enter politics accidentally when he was fired from finance minister post, from parliament, and from Forncinpec in 1994.  Then in 1995, based on demands for change for people inside and outside the country, he decided to create his own political party"the Khmer Nation Party" in order to contest the 1998 election, a year after the bloody coup launched by Hun Sen to topple Prince Ranaridh from first prime minister post.  But his party later known as Sam Rainsy party never won substantial votes to run the government.  Witnessing fragmentation among opposition parties just keeping Hun Sen continued holding his power without end, in 2012, Sam Rainsy Party merged with Human Right Party led by Kem Sokha to create the most popular party, " The Cambodian National Rescue Party, CNRP." in order to unseat Hun Sen from long over due power grab more than three decades.  Despite the election in 2013 was manipulated and cheated by the ruling party, CNRP still had strong potential to push the CPP to the brink.  Although the party gains more popular supports from all levels of people, the party leadership is not strong enough to weather the thunderstorm unleashed from Hun Sen, the most paranoid and trickiest leader in Cambodian history.  Hun Sen never got any real education degree as most other leaders, but he could outwit all his opponents since the Paris Peace Accord 1991, by relying on his strong political networks and power base from Hanoi.  For Sam Rainsy, a technocrat who lacks strong leadership and political skill to compete with Hun Sen whose ruthless behavior can eliminate him from political arena sooner or later if Sam Rainsy keeps repeated his unnecessary mistakes.

Should Cambodian politicians learn a lesson from Myanmar?

[Image credit RFA Khmer]

By Khmer Wathanakam
www.khmerwathanak.blogspot.com

Political atmosphere has heated up again after Hun Sen has angrily reacted to Sam Rainy's criticism, labeling  his leadership as a dictatorial rule and planning to create political instability in order to avert the incoming election.  Through his Facebook Page, Hun Sen called Sam Rainsy " a son of the traitor." And he also warned Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha of facing imprisonment, accusing them of inciting violence on Veng Sreng Road in early 2014 where Hun Sen's security forces opened fire on protesters, killed at least seven people and wounded nearly a hundred more.  Along with rude personal attack on Sam Rainsy's background and the threat of imprisonment, Hun Sen simultaneously called for his supporters to stand up against the opposition party (CNRP).  As a pattern, all Hun Sen's threats and warnings always have turned into violent mobs or imprisonment on his opponents.  Now Hun Sen's new threat seems even stronger than before, and the opposition should carefully watch out what measure Hun Sen would take against the two CNRP leaders and their members.  When Hun Sen labeled Sam Rainsy as a traitor just reflected to his own actions, and let the people make their own judgement who is a real traitor? A landslide victory of the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Ms. Aung Sann Suu Kyi in Myanmar over the Pro-military government of President Thein Sein, has sent a clear massage to all dictatorial leaders in the region--Hun Sen, Gen. Prayuth Chan Ocha of Thailand, and the communist leaders in Vietnam and Laos that their political fate would not last forever.  For Hun Sen, a paranoid man, the more he fears, the more he reacts to his opponents in rude and uncivilized manner.  On his Facebook Page, Hun Sen tried to differentiate between Aung Sann Suu Kyi and Sam Rainsy, portraying Suu Kyi from a patriotic family and Sam Rainsy from a traitor family.  Why did Hun Sen tried to show such a comparison? Because he did not want the people to see Sam Rainsy as Aung Sann Suu Kyi of Cambodia, the political shadow that he fears most.  However, to cool down political tension in the country, Hun Sen should learn from President Thein Sein whom Hun Sen used to boast that he had taught him about reform and democracy from Cambodia.  And Sam Rainsy, as a friend of Ms. Aung Sann Suu Kyi and sharing a common value of democracy with her, he should learn from political skill and how she has dealt with her political opponents in order to reach his final goal of bringing a true democracy to Cambodian people the same as the people of Myanmar.

Can Cambodian politcal atmosphere return to detente?

[Sam Rainsy was welcomed by his supporters when he arrived at airport, image Sam Rainsy Facebook]

By Khmer Wathanakam
www.khmerwathanak.blogspot.com

The return of CNRP's president Sam Rainsy to the country with thousands of enthusiastic supporters welcomed him home without any incident has made many people feel more released and sense of new detente.  Many observers and analysts had warned ahead of Sam Rainsy's return that he might face more threats and even imprisonment by Hun Sen.  However, Sam Rainsy returned to the country, encountering with only a warm welcomed crowds of his supporters, but his peaceful return can't go on without a backdoor deal with Hun Sen first.  As we have learned that Hun Sen had demanded Sam Rainsy apologized him for comparing his violent tactic against CNRP's PMs to the Fascists in Italy, and Hun Sen also had warned that Sam Rainsy might face jail term for his collusion with Senator Hong Sok Hour on charged of forgery on Vietnam-Cambodia border treaty.  Despite those threats by Hun Sen are real or empty ones, no one can't predict Hun Sen'd move and guarantee Sam Rainsy's safe return.  To clarify such an uncertainty, Sam Rainsy needs to use realpolitik: a system of politics based on country's real situation and it needed rather than on ideas about what is morally right or wrong.  Although Sam Rainsy's comparison is well reflected to Hun Sen's actions and behavior, he has to apologize Hun Sen for his comparison as overstate in order to avert more political tension.  Nonetheless, Hun Sen had to step back too by accepting Sam Rainsy's apology privately, not publicly as he had demanded.  And Hun Sen reaffirmed that "the Culture of Dialogue" between the two parties would continue.  For Sam Rainsy, though this apology private or public, he has repeated his mistakes.  Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha may avoid these humiliations and counterproductive for the party if they did not miscalculate and have good judgement on Hun Sen's behavior.

Sam Rainy and Kem Sokha should learn that political rhetoric and provocative speeches have never brought positive result for themselves and the party but political backlashes and counterproductive.  As a weaker party and adhered to nonviolent principle, they should not use any provocative speech, instead focus on building the party strength and garnering support from the people by frequently visiting the grassroots, educating and spreading the party principle and policies for the next election.  The party can prove its confidence of winning the incoming election by showing its good policies and principle, avoiding name referring or comparing their opponents to whatever unnecessary, but let the people make their own judgement, the more violence and intimidation Hun Sen has committed against CNRP, the more sympathy and support it receive from the people.  Hun Sen's violent tactic against CNRP is also his counterproductive since he just portrays himself as a real evil leader.