Saturday, March 22, 2014

Can Negotiation Move Forward?

CPP-CNRP negotiation teams (Google image)

The two major parties have failed to reach political solution since the post-election crisis started over the past eight months, for they have accused each other for insincere talk.  Now we try to look at the facts who is the real culprit.  To solve the crisis successfully, first they must identify the cause of the problem, and in this scenario we know that one party had created the problem and asked the other to solve it.  And such a problem can be solved if and only if the problem maker is willing to solve it sincerely.  It is ostensibly that the CPP is a real trouble maker by systematically creating a deeply flaw electoral system that definitely deprives the other competitors from winning the election such as intimidation, unequal access to media, vote buying, ghost list of voters, disfranchised people suspected supporting other parties, and importantly the National Election Committee (NEC) is too bias to run the election.  All these issues are the roots to the post-election crisis that has crippled the country over the past eight months and no any sign of ending soon despite the two parties agreed to the 14 points on the agendas, for those points are too vague and broad ,and each party will reject any of those when it comes into detailed discussion particularly on the election and NEC reform, the most important issue among the 14 points.

Monday, March 17, 2014

March 18, 1970 From Bloodless Coup to Bloody War

Marshal Lon Nol and his entourage (image

Since independence day 1953 until 1970, King Sihanouk and his Sangkum Reas Nyum had overshadowed all Cambodian people lives.  Most old Cambodian generation had experienced Sihanouk's autocratic rule and his unpredictable foreign policy that ultimately became catalysts to pull him from the power.  By 1966, Sihanouk had shown his political weakness since he could not control both internal and external problems--the intensification of Vietnam War and the growing conservative and nationalist elements in his government and party.  It is remarkable that the National Assembly members elected in 1966 were not handpicked by Sihanouk though they were still the Sangkum members, and those members later voted to oust him from the power. However, his peaceful removal had created a quick fire storm that pushed the country into the most bloody war in the country's history.

By 1958, the Democrat, the backbone of Cambodian democracy and a constant threat to Sihanouk's political fortune had been wiped out completely from political arena.  Most of its prominent members either joint the Sangkum or went into exile such as Son San, Chean Vorm, Keng Vansak, Thuon Mom, and so forth.  But when the Democrat vanished, the Communists and the Khmer Serei have emerged to challenged his power again.  Sihanouk fairly survived coup attempt in 1959 plotted by Dap Chuonn, Son Gnoc Thanh, Som Sary and others shadowing by the CIA, Saigon, and Bangkok. As the aftermath, Sihanouk went against all suspected supporters of Khmer Serei, extirpating them through fire squads, and severed diplomatic tie with the U.S. and its economic aids.  While the Khmer Serei were almost wiped out from the country, the communists--the predecessor of the current CPP--had gained their momentum to openly challenged the Sangkum in election, and some of the well-known members were elected into the parliament such as Keu Somphan, Chao Seng, Ho Nem, and Ho Yun and so on. But Sihanouk persistently harassed them until they fled to the jungle one by one. By 1968, there was no a single communist member in the National Assembly but gradually dominated by the conservative and nationalist members.

Sunday, March 9, 2014

Is Ukraine Crisis a Cambodian Future Pre-image?

Russian troops blocked the road in Crimea,Ukraine (Google image)

Vietnamese Troops blocked opposition MPs from visiting border (Google image)


As a result of three month-long deadly uprising against a pro-Russian government in Kiev, President Victor Yanukovych fled the Capital after he had ordered his security forces to shoot protesters, killing at least 82 people and scored many more injured.  But the Ukrainian protesters' victory turned into political uncertainty when Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his troops to seize Crimea from Ukraine without a shot, claiming he has a right to protect Russian people who were in danger, actually there was no threat against them according to many reporters on the scenes.  But President Putin used his claim as an excuse to invade Ukraine to protect Russian interest and to incite Crimea's secession from Ukraine.  Meanwhile, Cambodia even has a crisis a few months before Ukraine, a political stalemate has still dragged on, and if the current pro-Vietnamese regime collapses or defeats in election, what will Vietnam react to a situation in Cambodia? There are some analogies between the two nations.

After integration with the Soviet Union on December 1922, Ukraine became part of the Soviet Union and the most prosperous state known as a bread basket and advanced industrial state among the 15-states in the former Soviet union.  During the World War II, Ukraine became a raged battle ground between Nazi troops and the Red Army, for its location mostly stretched between Europe and Russia.  After the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, Ukraine became an independent nation, but it still has received heavy influence from Russia economically and politically since about 25 percent of its 46 million population are ethnic Russian, and some Ukrainian elected presidents were pro-Russian presidents.  Since its independence from 1991, Ukrainians elected four presidents, and at least three of them were more pro-Russia than the West.

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Prince Ranaridh Returns to Cure or to Curse the Nation?

Prince Ranaridh and his wife (Google image)

Prince Ranaridh, a man without principle, returns to politics when he saw the country still in deep political crisis due to massive election fraud that had cost the opposition victory.  As political deadlock has dragged on more than six months, Prince Ranaridh spots opportunity and imagines himself as the best choice for the people when the two major parties are unable to break a political iceberg.  Whatever Prince Ranaridh has in his mind is his choice; but actually his political life is already dead, for his incompetence and unreliable political behavior.

Prince Ranaridh has inherited political characteristic behavior exactly from his father King Sihanouk who, through his political life, had been off and on in politics in countless times.  Then Prince Ranaridh seems to fallow his father legacy, jumping into politics as opportunity is suitable and retires when sensing defeated.  Now and again, Ranaridh naively thinks that the people may still fallow him as they had done in the past,  and he assumes that he still has popularity as his father did.  Nowadays, however, Ranaridh has to think twice though he is a Ph.D law professor, he is perhaps dumber than most ordinary people.  He totally failed to comprehend the current situation in the country based on what he talked to the VOA, he had nothing new offering to solve the current crisis and to save the nation.